Wednesday, May 30, 2007

China Adoption Forecast

There is a website out there, the China Adoption Forecast, that will give you an estimated referral date based on a combination of current activity and past trends of the CCAA. I put in our LID, 02/16/06 and here is our prediction:

Our prediction for LID 2006-02-16
Our best guess - a weighted average of recent CCAA velocities, guessing that CCAA will perform about as well in the future as they are performing now, but might return to previous trends: 2007-12-17
That's our best guess for when you might receive your referral. Just at a guess, we can suppose that the CCAA either speeds up or slows down significantly, and show you those dates. If they speed up: 2007-10-25. And if they slow down: 2008-10-16.
Since China generally sends out referrals in a batch about once per month, your referral date could easily vary +/- one month depending on whether you just get included or just get missed in a particular batch.

So, what can I say now? "I sure hope they "speed up"!"...DUH! Duh
My "guesstimate" at this point is a referral sometime in December as well, which means that we will not be traveling until probably February 2008. Ugh...another holiday season without our Willow....not looking forward to that.

Here is a link to the site if you want to check your LID or if you want additional information on what information they use to make their estimates: